The Central Economic Work Conference deploys task experts to interpret the new signal of policy orientation
Zhangjiang area of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone, shot on September 10th. Xinhua News Agency reporter Tang Yushe
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 13th, China annual economic decision-making meeting with the highest specifications — — The Central Economic Work Conference was held a few days ago, which laid out the key tasks of economic work next year, focused on economic construction and high-quality development, emphasized consolidating and enhancing the positive trend of economic recovery, and issued new signals such as "striving for progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking".
Zhao Xijun, co-dean of China Capital Market Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that the change from "keeping the word steady, striving for progress in stability" to "striving for progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and breaking it first" shows that the central government’s understanding of economic work is more systematic, perfect and overall, and it has grasped the relationship between stability and progress, dynamic and static in economic development after the epidemic, and better promoted the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity.
“‘ Establish first and then break ’ It is to let the growth factors be released more actively. " Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said that for some new forces, we should encourage them to grow up first, find problems in their growth, standardize them in their growth, and make them go better.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China drew a grand blueprint for comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese modernization, emphasizing that high-quality development is the primary task of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.
The Central Economic Work Conference laid out the key points for promoting high-quality development next year from nine aspects: leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, deepening reforms in key areas, expanding high-level opening to the outside world, continuously and effectively preventing and resolving risks in key areas, persistently doing a good job in the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, promoting urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development, deepening the construction of ecological civilization and green and low-carbon development, and effectively safeguarding and improving people’s livelihood.
"This shows that China does not rely on scale expansion and relatively low added value to promote economic growth, but will achieve economic recovery in high-quality development." Zhao Xijun said.
Zhang Liqun said that one of the characteristics of China’s economy this year is that it has gradually emerged from difficulties and achieved remarkable economic recovery. By increasing policy support, the government has improved the weak links of economic development and stabilized the expectations of investment and consumers.
On November 27th, in Chongqing Changan Crossing Vehicle Co., Ltd., located in Wanzhou District, Chongqing, the staff were busy on the production line. Xinhua News Agency reporter Tang Yushe
In the first three quarters of this year, China’s GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year, which still ranks among the top in the world’s major economies, laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected growth target of around 5% for the whole year.
At present, China’s economic operation continues to improve, its innovation momentum is constantly enhanced, and breakthroughs have been made in tackling key core technologies. Many experts interviewed here pointed out that the Central Economic Work Conference placed "scientific and technological innovation" in an important position.
Bin Chen, an associate researcher in the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, analyzed that next year will be a crucial year for China to implement the "14th Five-Year Plan", and China will take further measures to promote market players to lay out new economic tracks and new formats.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to strengthen the countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools. It also emphasized that proactive fiscal policies should be moderately strengthened, quality improved and efficiency improved, and prudent monetary policies should be flexible, moderate, accurate and effective.
Zhang Yansheng, the chief researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that the word "moderate" means that China will not carry out strong stimulus like some developed countries, but will pay attention to the quality and efficiency of policies, emphasize the pertinence, and promote economic development with more precise and appropriate efforts.
On July 6, 2023, the World Artificial Intelligence Conference kicked off in Shanghai World Expo Center, where visitors interacted with the soft humanoid intelligent service robot at the Dalai booth. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Li Xinyi)
Public opinion is generally concerned about the formulation of "enhancing the consistency of macro-policy orientation" at the meeting — — Strengthen the coordination of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, scientific and technological, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure the same direction and form a joint force.
Zhang Yansheng believes that this has released a signal from the central level to avoid conflicts between different policies and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of various business entities, including the private economy and the foreign-funded economy.
China’s economic recovery is still at a critical stage, which further promotes the economic recovery and puts forward high requirements for the implementation of macro policies. The meeting stressed that attention should be paid to grasping and handling the relationship between speed and quality, macro data and micro feelings, economic development and improvement of people’s livelihood, development and security.
Experts interviewed generally believe that China has a large-scale market, a complete industrial system, a large number of high-quality workers and entrepreneurs, a deeper understanding of the laws of economic work in macro policies, and strong endogenous motivation, resilience and potential for economic development. The difficulties and challenges that China has to overcome are problems in progress and troubles in development, and it is necessary to enhance confidence and confidence.
It has been noted that the International Monetary Fund recently raised China’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 5% to 5.4%, and at the same time raised its growth forecast for 2024. UBS Group AG, JPMorgan Chase and other institutions are also optimistic about China’s economic growth prospects. (Reporter Xin Guo, Zhou Wenqi, He Xiaotong, Li Yunlu)