＂US government COO＂ Musk

Elon musk, who was born and raised in South Africa and got American citizenship only at the age of 31, is now in the center of power in Washington.

On November 13, Beijing time, US President-elect Trump announced that Musk would co-lead the newly established "Government Efficiency Department" with Wiewecke Ramaswami, a billionaire in biotechnology.（Department of Government Efficiency）DOGE—— for short-this name is the same as the popular Shiba Inu emoticon pack, and it is easy to associate with dogecoin, the cryptocurrency that Mas is keen to promote.（Dogecoin）.

This department is not a formal federal government agency, because the US Congress has not approved its establishment. It is still unclear how Musk and Ramaswami will work from outside the government, or through what procedures they will be formally appointed.

According to the ideas put forward by Musk and Ramaswami, the budget expenditure of the US federal government may be reduced by 2 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to cutting the budget by nearly one third in 2024, while downsizing 75% of employees. Their task will be completed on July 4, 2026, which coincides with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the American Declaration of Independence. In his statement, Trump described a more streamlined and efficient government as a "generous gift" for his motherland.

It is easy to see that in this government reform aimed at improving efficiency, Musk is about to become the "Chief Operating Officer" of the US government.（COO）.

But compared with saving money for the US government, for China and even the global technology industry,Perhaps more influential is the possible policy changes in the four areas that Musk has been deeply involved in-electric vehicles, commercial rockets, artificial intelligence and social media-during Trump’s tenure.

In addition to serving as the envisaged COO, Musk is bound to also assume the "Chief Technology Officer"（CTO）The function of. After Trump’s victory, speculations from the scientific and technological circles were endless, and even the opposite prediction direction appeared.

For a fast-growing industry like artificial intelligence, the four-year term of office of the President of the United States is enough to witness several rounds of technological revolution and capital carnival.However, for Trump and Musk, who were at odds with each other seven years ago and were still fighting each other two years ago, it is also unknown how long Musk’s far-reaching influence on the US government can last.

Some analysts said they were worried that Musk didn’t understand the key to maintaining influence in Trump’s world: keeping a low profile.

First, the art of trading

Considering that Musk is difficult to cut with a huge commercial map, he probably won’t hold a full-time position in the US government.

"I don’t think he can work full-time because he has to send rockets and be busy with his projects." Trump said at a campaign rally in Michigan in September.

In terms of cutting expenses, Musk is a person who has experienced it.Acquisition of X platform in 2022(original Twitter)After that, Musk immediately laid off employees on a large scale, and the total number of employees plummeted from 8,000 to 1,500. Although this led to the withdrawal of advertisers and a sharp decline in corporate income, it also brought about changes in the public opinion environment. Today, X has become an important gathering place for the right-wing community, and according to Musk, X’s monthly users have exceeded 600 million, ranking among the mainstream social media.

When operating SpaceX, Musk also successfully pushed the rocket launch cost to the unmatched low price of competitors through negotiations with suppliers and streamlined management style, laying a leading position in the industry.

"Jiazi Lightyear" believes that if Musk’s $2 trillion reduction is to be achieved, it will be accompanied by large-scale regulatory relaxation and policy shift by the US government–these changes will make Musk’s Tesla, SpaceX, X platform and Neuralink and other companies benefit.Including his industries subject to government supervision and subsidies.

For supporters who support this appointment, the increase in Musk’s personal income is harmless.They originally regarded the US government as a stumbling block to the development of high-tech companies. For example, Kerven Pishva, a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley and an investor in SpaceX, boasted: "Reducing regulation will accelerate SpaceX’s landing on Mars." "Musk will make the United States run like a startup. No entrepreneur in American history is greater than Musk."

However, the possibility of Musk’s participation in government affairs has also triggered discussions on conflicts of interest, especially since his company has been repeatedly reviewed by the federal government in recent years.

Hal Singh, a professor of economics at the University of Utah, pointed out that if Trump is in power again, the review of the Ministry of Justice may be relaxed. "They are unlikely to take action against Elon-Trump’s Justice Department won’t do that," Singh explained. "You don’t investigate your friends, but you can investigate your enemies-this is the reality we saw in the first Trump administration."

As a result, a transaction surfaced. Musk shouted for Trump at the end of his campaign and personally attended the campaign site, donating more than 100 million US dollars, exceeding the total donation of the entire oil industry. Now is the time for him to reap the fruits.

As of November 2024, according to estimates by Forbes and Bloomberg, Musk’s worth has exceeded $300 billion. Tesla’s third-quarter earnings report was bright, and the election results boosted Tesla’s share price. Musk’s personal wealth increased by at least $50 billion in less than a month.

This makes people seem to have returned to the United States in the gilded age. Reuters pointed out that in the second half of the 19th century, business giants such as J·P· Morgan and john rockefeller had exerted influence on government policies through huge wealth to consolidate their career and position.

Opponents warn that relaxing the control of high-risk industries such as rocket launch may bring disastrous consequences to this field. A former SpaceX official made it clear that "if the supervision continues to relax, the industry may usher in a big retrogression or even a decade."

Musk did not agree with this. He said in a public speech in Pittsburgh in October: "Participating in politics has greatly increased the risk of my assassination. I don’t want to die, but reality has forced me to stand up. "

In recent years, many companies under Musk have benefited a lot from government projects. The us department of defense funded tarlink to provide internet for Ukraine; NASA rents SpaceX rockets to perform tasks; Cities such as Las Vegas signed contracts with Musk’s tunnel company The Boring Company to develop infrastructure.

In his victory speech on election night, Trump also specifically mentioned Starlink’s contribution to providing Internet connection for hurricane victims. This was ridiculed by the outside world: thank you sponsors.

Gita Johar, a professor at Columbia Business School, analyzed that the relationship between Musk and Trump is like an exchange of interests: "Musk supports Trump so openly, not only giving full financial support, but also giving personal help. Their expectation is’ you take care of me, I take care of you’. "

But this time, Musk will face a different field-the public service department.

Tesla is the only major automobile manufacturer in the United States without a trade union. In the federal government, employees enjoy strong employment protection measures, which will greatly hinder his usual strategy of "reducing redundancy" and make federal employees not as "obedient" as employees of Musk’s companies.

Second, AI supervision: between tightness and tightness

In the context of deregulation, "Jiazi Lightyear" believes that,The future of American science and technology policy will continue to be subdivided into two parts between Trump and Musk-one is the physical science and technology products that Trump’s tariffs will affect, and the other is the artificial intelligence field that he seldom mentions, but Musk knows better.

Trump’s discussion of artificial intelligence is rare, which is somewhat unexpected. Because the core of his canvassing is that he is better at the economy, and the development of artificial intelligence may replace many jobs, which is also the main concern of ordinary voters for the economy.

Bloomberg commentary pointed out that if Trump’s silence in this field implies that he lacks attention to artificial intelligence, then his policies may be dominated by other key figures in the government, especially Musk.

It is reasonable to speculate that the Trump administration will continue to ensure that the United States can stay ahead in the most advanced AI research and development. In the large-scale model training, the Trump administration will also increase federal resources to promote the development of large-scale projects from the infrastructure.

At the same time, it is expected that the Trump administration will continue to strengthen restrictions to prevent other countries from acquiring the most advanced AI capabilities and chip products in the United States. This is a restriction that both the first Trump administration and the Biden administration are strengthening. If Trump is in power again, he may take more radical measures to curb the development of AI in other countries.

On the content level, in view of Trump’s clearest statement on AI policy, it is to abolish the Biden administration’s AI executive order and "prohibit the use of artificial intelligence to censor the speeches of American citizens". Therefore, the Trump administration’s content review of the American AI model is expected to be relaxed, and the review of algorithms including OpenAI and Google will be reduced. "Jiazi Lightyear" believes that this may be similar to Musk’s relaxation of speech restrictions on X.

In view of the fact that many American technology giants are facing a federal investigation, Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the Progressive Chamber of Commerce, predicts that the investigation will not disappear.But Trump may use these lawsuits as a bargaining chip in exchange for support in freedom of speech and relaxation of content supervision.

Expanding into the field of autonomous driving, there are significant differences in the regulatory provisions for autonomous vehicles among States in the United States, but it usually requires a long driving test. Musk publicly stated that he will use his influence in the government to promote the simplification of regulatory standards faced by competitors such as Waymo and Cruise. Tesla’s autonomous driving technology is not as good as these two companies at present, but simplifying complicated state supervision can obviously accelerate Tesla’s technological catch-up.

On the whole, "Jiazi Lightyear" believes that,Whether there will be more or less supervision in the field of artificial intelligence in the United States cannot be generalized.

First of all, the Center for Artificial Intelligence Policy, an organization focusing on security research, pointed out that if federal regulation is reduced, American States will also accelerate their actions and introduce more regulatory measures.

Secondly, although the Republican Party in the United States has always been disgusted with government supervision, Musk may be able to persuade Trump to adopt stricter safety standards in the field of artificial intelligence-a position that Musk has been advocating for many years.

Max Tegmark, a scientist who has worked with Musk for a long time and a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, pointed out to the Guardian that Musk may prompt Trump to face up to the potential risks of artificial intelligence because Musk’s concern about the rapid development of artificial intelligence in an unregulated state stems from his underlying sense of responsibility.

In the prediction of deregulation, many people have forgotten that in addition to signing an open letter in 2023 to suspend AI research and development for six months, Musk also chose to support California’s artificial intelligence security bill SB1047 this year. The bill gained more support from AI researchers, but was opposed by many technology giants and venture capitalists. In the end, the bill was rejected by California Governor newsome.

Tegmark pointed out: "If Musk can make Trump pay attention to artificial intelligence, we are expected to establish some safety standards, thus preventing the development of general artificial intelligence from getting out of control. He may also make Trump realize that the AGI competition is actually a dangerous self-destructive competition. "

In this context, the American Institute of Artificial Intelligence Security（AISI）The fate of has also become an unresolved issue. The institute was established by Biden’s government in November last year and is responsible for promoting the government’s relevant research in the field of AI security. In August this year, AISI also signed an agreement with OpenAI and Anthropic to formally cooperate in AI security research and test and evaluate the new model.

Keegan McBride, a lecturer in artificial intelligence policy at Oxford Internet Institute, pointed out that AISI was regarded by Trump as a "constraint of innovation", which was inconsistent with the overall direction of the Trump administration’s science and technology policy. However, AISI is widely supported within the Republican Party, because they believe that the organization will help maintain the global leadership of the United States in the field of AI.

At the same time, the international cooperation of artificial intelligence governance may tend to be dull, because Trump adopts a more confrontational attitude in diplomacy, which may weaken the cooperation of the United States in the international community, just as the first Trump administration did.

Third, the fate of Tesla

In terms of tariffs that Trump is more familiar with, it is expected that the new government’s policies will affect Tesla, Apple and some chip giants.

The relationship between Musk and Trump is subtle.One of the most obvious conflicts is the issue of climate change.-electric vehicles often take "environmental protection" as the core of propaganda, while Trump led the United States to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement at the beginning of his presidency and was skeptical about climate change.

Time has passed. While seeking Musk’s support this year, Trump also "inevitably" expressed support for the electric vehicle industry: "I must support electric vehicles because Elon is very supportive of me."

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wade Bush Securities, pointed out in the report that "the scale and scope of Tesla are unparalleled. This may give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in the non-electric vehicle subsidy environment. " However, he also believes that for other companies in the electric vehicle industry, Trump’s election as president is "generally negative news."

On the tariff issue, Tesla’s situation is also quite complicated. Automobile tariffs will help protect Tesla from the impact of electric vehicles in other countries, such as China, but strict import taxes will also greatly increase the production cost of new cars. Tesla’s supply chain relies on a large number of goods and raw materials from China. Steel tariffs may increase the manufacturing cost of Cybertruck, and tariffs on rare earths and minerals may push up the cost of vehicle cameras and sensors.

Trump promised to impose a general tariff of 10% on all imported goods, a 60% surcharge on imports from China and a tariff of 100% on Mexican goods after taking office. The American Retail Federation warned that if these tariffs are implemented, American consumers may lose as much as $78 billion in purchasing power every year.

Once implemented, Apple’s business performance will also be hit hard. According to Apple CEO Cook’s statement at the end of 2023, more than 95% of Apple’s hardware products are still produced and assembled in China. The American media Barron’s Weekly estimates that Trump’s tariffs will increase the cost of each iPhone16 by 216 to 240 dollars. However, Cook has successfully persuaded Trump to exempt Apple products when the previous government imposed tariffs in the past, and he may reach an agreement with Trump again.

Similarly, some analysts believe that Musk may persuade the Trump administration to lower tariffs on electric vehicles in China, and may even relax the overall tariff system for goods in China.

In Trump’s view, the logic of increasing tariffs or exempting tariffs is based on negotiations and transactions.This is particularly evident in his criticism of the Biden administration’s Chip and Science Act. The bill introduced by Biden’s administration promises to invest nearly $53 billion in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research, which is regarded as an important measure to enhance the competitiveness of the United States in China and further prevent China from acquiring high-end chips and other advanced technologies.

During the campaign, Trump called the bill a "bad" deal, and hinted that chip companies would choose to build factories in the United States with or without the bill, because his tariff policy itself was enough to attract them, and the government should not spend money on already rich semiconductor giants in vain. He made it clear: "Expanding tariffs will be more effective than increasing industrial policies."

As Trump said last month: "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect. "

Fourth, like a father like a son

Whether the alliance between Musk and Trump will be lasting and stable before Musk really has an impact on the US government is also difficult to draw a conclusion.

In 2017, Musk resigned from the Presidential Advisory Committee because Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, and the two once made a bad relationship. Musk also said in 2022 that Trump should "sail to the sunset."(Leave politics)This prompted Trump to counterattack at that time, saying that without government subsidies, Musk would be "worthless".

Considering their ambitions and personalities, many people on social media predict that Trump, who is the same age as Musk’s father, will eventually fall out with Musk, the "adopted son" who has been close to Trump’s family recently.

In the first administration, Trump also appointed a corporate executive with no political or military experience-former ExxonMobil CEO Tillerson was appointed as Secretary of State. This position belongs to the fourth person in the United States who can take over the presidency in the Constitution, second only to the President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

This move is unprecedented in the history of American diplomacy. The New York Times reported at the time that this was an "experiment" of Trump. For Trump, who also lacks such background, he expects Tillerson to bring the concept and experience of enterprise management into foreign policy and inject a new perspective into traditional American diplomacy.

But just over a year later, Tillerson became the first US Secretary of State to be fired after World War II. At that time, outside analysis believed that his acquaintance with Trump was too hasty, and the two sides had not yet recognized each other’s background color.

Today, similar appointments are staged again, but the new "experiment" looks much more cautious. Musk did not get a more important position for the time being, but a "supernumerary person."

However, some of Trump’s consultants expressed concern about Musk’s performance in Trump World. They told NBC News that Musk may not understand that the first way to maintain influence in this circle is to "keep a low profile". Musk was too radical in this process. People familiar with the matter added that Musk’s primary motivation seems to be to advance his own agenda rather than cater to Trump’s political blueprint.

At least so far, the two sides are still immersed in the early honeymoon period when a journey is about to begin.

On the day of the results of the US election, Musk posted a photo of himself saluting the American flag generated by AI on X with a pink sky in the background. He wrote in the essay: "The United States will welcome the dawn again."

Source: Musk’s X account

References:

The New York Times:Elon Musk Helped Elect Trump.What Does He Expect in Return?

Reuters:How Musk’s clout with Trump could enrich his companies

Bloomberg:Musk’sAINightmares Could Blunt Trump’s Tech Ambitions

The Guardian:Musk’s influence on Trump could lead to tougherAIstandards，says scientist

The Guardian:How a second Trump term could further enrich Elon Musk:‘There will be some quid pro quo’

NBC News:Elon Musk may already be overstaying his welcome in Trump’s orbit