There is no interest rate cut after the negative growth of social integration, and the window of interest rate cut and RRR cut is expected to move back in the short term.

Economic Observer reporter Hu Yanming After the financial data fluctuated greatly in April, the market expected to cut interest rates in May. On May 15th, the People’s Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as "the central bank") operated the medium-term loan facility (MLF) with "equal parity", and the expectation of interest rate cut was temporarily frustrated.

According to the financial statistics published by the central bank in April and the data of social financing scale (hereinafter referred to as "social financing"), the Economic Observer found that RMB loans increased by 730 billion yuan in April, an increase of 11.2 billion yuan year-on-year; In April, the increase in social welfare was-198.7 billion yuan, compared with 1.22 trillion yuan in the same period last year.

Affected by social integration and other factors, the growth rate of money supply declined. In April, the narrow money (M1) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, while the broad money (M2) increased by 7.2%, which was at a historical low. Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the decline in money supply was mainly due to the "squeezing water" of some non-compliant deposit products by supervision, and it was also related to the more diversified wealth management methods at present, which could not be interpreted unilaterally as the decline in financial support for the real economy; On the contrary, the supervision of deposits will help to activate funds and help finance to better support the recovery and development of the real economy.

Some scholars have also analyzed that more effective measures need to be taken to boost market confidence and expectations.

Some market investors believe that there was a negative growth in social financing in April, and the MLF interest rate should be lowered to stimulate financing. Zhang Xu, chief analyst of fixed income of Everbright Securities, said that the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was dragged down to some extent by the "squeezing water" of financial data. Because the squeezed out part of the "moisture" was also precipitated or occupied inefficiently in the early stage, it did not form a real support for the real economy. Therefore, the decline in financial data caused by "squeezing out water" does not mean that the strength of financial support entities is weakened, and there is no need to immediately use such a powerful policy tool as MLF to cut interest rates.

Social integration showed negative growth in April.

According to the data of the central bank, the cumulative increase in social integration in the first four months of 2024 was 12.73 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social integration in the first quarter of 2024 was 12.93 trillion yuan. Therefore, the increase in social welfare in April was-198.7 billion yuan.

The increment of social financing refers to the amount of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period, including direct financing such as corporate bonds and government bonds, as well as indirect financing such as RMB loans and foreign currency loans.

From the perspective of social finance, government bonds, corporate bonds and undiscounted bank acceptance bills dragged down the data in April. In April, the net financing of government bonds decreased by 98.4 billion yuan, an increase of 553.2 billion yuan less than that in April 2023.

It is clearly believed that the scale of government bonds has declined because the issuance of national debt and local debt is slow. Considering the decline in land transfer fees, slow progress in issuing special bonds, limited local financial resources and other factors, the follow-up government bond financing will be accelerated, and it is expected that social integration will also be significantly boosted.

In April, the scale of corporate bond financing increased by 49.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 244.7 billion yuan. Undiscounted acceptance bills decreased by 448.6 billion yuan, an increase of 314.1 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in the impulse of bank bills and the willingness of enterprises to invoice.

In terms of RMB loan data (also known as "credit data"), it is basically the same as that of the same period last year. April was a traditional credit abortion, and in April 2024, RMB loans were increased by about 730 billion yuan. However, from the perspective of credit structure, bill impulse phenomenon is obvious.

In April, corporate loans increased by 860 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans decreased by 410 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 410 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 838.1 billion yuan.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the demand for corporate loans weakened seasonally in April, but the supply of long-term loans to public companies remained stable, which remained an important force supporting new credit. Under the constraint of demand, in order to stabilize the pace of credit supply, some banks still have the demand of filling in the scale.

Residential loans (also known as "household loans") showed negative growth. Residents’ loans mainly include short-term loans such as consumer loans and business loans and medium-and long-term loans such as housing mortgage loans. In April, residents’ loans decreased by 516.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 275.5 billion yuan compared with April 2023. Among them, residents’ short-term loans and long-term loans decreased by 351.8 billion yuan and 166.6 billion yuan respectively.

Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry of Everbright Securities, believes that with the heavy supply of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing is expected to gradually increase. In April, the growth rate of social financing hit a low of 8.3% in the year, which was mainly dragged down by some factors, such as delayed loan placement of reserve projects, delayed issuance of government bonds, pressure drop of stock bills, and dull financing of stock bonds.

The growth rate of money supply declined.

The slowdown in financing demand has slowed down the money supply. At the end of April, the balance of M2 was 301.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The balance of M1 was 66.01 trillion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year. M1 turned negative year-on-year, and M2 fell to a historical low year-on-year.

At present, China’s currency is divided into three levels: M0, M1 and M2. M0, which is often called "cash", is the most active and has the highest liquidity. M1, which is M0 plus unit demand deposit with slightly weaker liquidity; M2 is M1 plus unit time deposits and resident deposits with weaker liquidity. Therefore, M1 is called narrow money supply; M2 is the broad money supply.

Ming Ming said that the obvious decline in the growth rate of money supply was mainly due to the fact that since April, many deposit funds have been transferred to asset management products such as bank wealth management under the background of seasonal factors and strict supervision of manual interest payment. Judging from the changes of deposits in various departments, residents’ deposits decreased by about 650 billion yuan in April, corporate deposits decreased by about 1.7 trillion yuan, and government deposits decreased by about 400 billion yuan. The decrease in deposits of residents and enterprises confirms the phenomenon of "deposits moving", while the year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits is mainly due to the slow issuance process of government bonds. Considering that the financing of government bonds has decreased by 550 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, the side reflects that the current fiscal expenditure rhythm may have slowed down marginally.

At the end of April, the "scissors gap" between the growth rates of M2 and M1 widened. Wen Bin believes that the growth rate of M2 has slowed down, but the financial system has further improved its quality and efficiency in serving the real economy. The slowdown of money supply growth is affected by multiple factors. First, since the beginning of the year, the bond market has boosted the yield of asset management products such as wealth management, and bank deposits have been diverted to wealth management; Second, the regulatory authorities have stepped up the regulation of idle arbitrage of funds and manual interest payment by banks to squeeze out some inflated deposits and loans; The third is to optimize the accounting of financial added value, and the motivation of individual local governments to increase financial added value by expanding deposits and loans has obviously weakened. In the next few months, with the gradual improvement of financing demand in the real economy, the acceleration of financing by government departments and the gradual return of the bond market to fundamental logic, the growth rate of money supply will stabilize.

According to the financial data in April, the year-on-year growth rate of new residential loans, new social financing and M1 was "negative growth". Wang Yifeng analyzed that, first, insufficient effective demand is still the core issue, which exerts influence on "credit abortion" together with some influencing factors, the former is the "source" and the latter is the "flow"; Second, the accounting method of added value of the financial industry has changed, which has promoted the interests of all parties to slow down their demands for scale expansion; Third, the policy orientation strengthens "revitalizing the existing financial resources" and prevents "funds from depositing and idling". The financial data reading in April did have a "squeezing water" component; Fourth, the substantial impact of stopping "manual interest payment" may be the beginning rather than the end; Fifth, the contradiction between deposits and loans, money and credit, and the scissors difference in reading will probably continue.

May MLF’s "Equal Parity" sequel

On May 15th, 2024, the People’s Bank of China launched a 2 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation and a 125 billion yuan MLF operation. On the same day, a total of 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 125 billion yuan of MLF expired, achieving complete liquidity hedging. In terms of price, the MLF operating interest rate remains unchanged at 2.5%, and the 7-day reverse repurchase operating interest rate remains unchanged at 1.8%.

MLF’s volume and price were both flat, and the shrinking operation was finished for the first time in March. Obviously, at the price level, the MLF and reverse repurchase operations all maintained the previous interest rate unchanged, while the market had failed to expect the interest rate cut in May based on the weak social credit data in April. On the quantitative level, this MLF continued to be 125 billion yuan, and the maturity scale on the same day was also 125 billion yuan, which was the first time since March this year to end the liquidity reduction operation.

Since May, the biggest concern of the market for liquidity lies in the concentrated supply shock of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds, and it is believed that the central bank may hedge it by lowering the RRR. Wen Bin analyzed that according to the latest arrangement of the Ministry of Finance for the issuance of general treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 13, this year, the Ministry of Finance plans to issue three kinds of special treasury bonds of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, respectively, 7 times, 12 times and 3 times, scattered from May to November. The smooth issuance and prolonged pace of this special national debt have weakened the concentrated impact on liquidity, and correspondingly, the necessity of the central bank’s current cooperation through RRR reduction has also declined.

Moreover, with the MLF interest rate unchanged in May, the LPR (loan market quotation rate) will remain "on hold" with a high probability this month.

Obviously, considering the internal and external policy conditions, MLF will cut interest rates or wait for a better opportunity. As of the first quarter of this year, the weighted average interest rate of general loans has dropped to a record low of 4.27%, which makes commercial banks face higher interest spread pressure and the demand for cost reduction in the financial system is still high; In April, the quality of credit data was average, and the repair of entity financing demand also needed further efforts of cost reduction tools. In the first quarter, the statement of "paying close attention to the changes of monetary policies of major overseas central banks" was put forward, which reflected the central bank’s increased attention to the operation of overseas monetary policies. Considering that there are still some uncertainties when the central banks of overseas developed economies such as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the timing of MLF’s interest rate cut may not be appropriate, and deposit interest rate cut may be more feasible.

For the future policy space, Wen Bin predicted that in order to promote a moderate rebound in prices and increase support for the real economy, the importance of aggregate tools remains, and monetary policy will adhere to the general tone of stability and easing; However, in order to stabilize the exchange rate and prevent funds from idling and arbitrage, it may be difficult to cash in the short term, but with the accumulation of conditions, it may still land during the year.

Reporting/feedback

There are new changes in the national key R&D plan! Ad hoc list of "unveiling the list"

China’s scientific research project management reform has ushered in new changes.

On May 10th, in the first batch of key projects launched in 2021 by the "14th Five-Year Plan" national key R&D plan announced by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the task of unveiling the list was specially set up. This is the first time that the list of "Uncovering the List" has been listed separately, and it has been released together with the project application guide, involving indicators such as application instructions, research requirements and list tasks.

The reporter found that in the notice issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology on the 11th, the 2021 annual project application guide for key projects such as "Information Photonic Technology" in the 14th Five-Year Plan (hereinafter referred to as "the guide"), a number of projects were listed separately, together with the key project of "Mathematics and Applied Research" published on the 10th, the list of key projects in 2021 was increased to five.

Source: Notice of the Ministry of Science and Technology on the 11 th on the guidance for the application of key projects in 2021, such as the National Key R&D Plan "Information Photonic Technology"

Zheng Jianjian, director of the Planning Department of the Asset Management Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, said in an interview with the media that the "Uncovering the List" project highlights the role of end users, and takes "list-based" management as the core in the management system, and the tasks that are not implemented well are stopped in time; In the responsibility system, the "military order" system is the core to ensure that the goal is completed on time; In terms of policy system, we will focus on stimulating the vitality of innovative subjects and strive to improve the performance of project implementation.

In addition to "unveiling the list", the guide shows that the project management reform measures also involve two aspects: the young scientist project and the Ministry-province linkage project.

On May 11th, The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China of the Communist Party of China hosted a symposium on high-level and high-skilled talents with special government allowance system. Li Keqiang said that it is necessary to create an atmosphere in which all kinds of talents can display their talents. It is necessary to deepen the "streamline administration, delegate power, strengthen regulation and improve services" reform, promote the reform of the education system and the science and technology system, get rid of all kinds of unreasonable restrictions, give the scientific research team greater autonomy, make all kinds of talents concentrate on their research and skills, and promote the 360-line champion. Innovate the new organization and management methods of scientific research projects such as "revealing the list and taking the lead", and give platforms, honors and incentives to talents who can be officers and do things. Young talents have the greatest potential for innovation. It is necessary to support more outstanding young people to take the lead in major scientific research tasks and promote them to achieve more results in the golden stage of scientific research.

What are the key points of "unveiling the list"

This year’s government work report puts forward that in 2021, it is necessary to reform the implementation mode of major science and technology projects and promote mechanisms such as "revealing the list and taking the lead". The "14th Five-Year Plan" also proposes to reform the way of establishing and organizing major scientific and technological projects, give scientific research units and researchers more autonomy, implement the responsibility system of technical chief engineer, and implement the systems of "revealing the list and taking the lead" and "horse racing".

The guide shows that there is no requirement for the registration time of the company that unveiled the list, and there is no requirement for the age, education and professional title of the person in charge of the team that unveiled the list. The advantageous team that has the confidence and ability to organize key core technologies to attack is encouraged to actively declare. Clarify the amount of funding for list tasks, simplify budget preparation, and explore the implementation of "negative list" in fund management.

Take the 2021 list of the key project of "Mathematics and Applied Research" as an example. The list says that we will strive to make a breakthrough in solving the deep-seated mathematical problems that restrict the development of technology around major application scenarios such as 5.5G communication system design, base station filter production design, satellite electromechanical system performance prediction, integrated circuit design, etc. It is planned to allocate no more than 45 million yuan from the state. Unless otherwise specified, the number of items to be supported by each list task is 1.

With regard to the requirements for tackling key problems, after the project is established, the team of uncovering the list must sign a "military order", and make specific agreements on the assessment requirements, funding allocation methods, reward and punishment measures and the attribution of achievements of the milestone, and put the task objectives of the list in a prominent position, concentrate superior resources and make every effort to tackle key problems within a limited time. The person in charge of the project (project) shall not be transferred or resigned from his post in principle during the period of tackling key problems.

In terms of specific list tasks, this "unveiling the list" list covers four tasks, and each task has its own research and development time limit and list amount.

As early as the end of February this year, Xie Xin, director of the Department of Resource Allocation and Management of the Ministry of Science and Technology, said at the press conference of the State Council Office that the national science and technology plan is an important carrier for the government to organize scientific and technological innovation activities, and the reform will continue to deepen during the 14 th Five-Year Plan. In terms of specific reform measures, Xie Xin said that the first one is "revealing the list and taking the lead", which is the top priority of the reform of the "14 th Five-Year Plan" science and technology projects.

He said that the core of the reform is to design research and development tasks closely around the urgent needs of high-quality economic and social development. In the process of implementation, the responsibility is compacted through reform measures such as "military order", and finally the results are assessed by users, so that the science and technology plan can focus more on the national needs and enhance the ability to attack.

Xie Xin revealed in an interview with the media a few days ago that in the future, the key project of "subversive technological innovation" will be launched in the "14 th Five-Year Plan", and priority will be given to the technical fields that may have major subversive breakthroughs, such as electronic information, artificial intelligence, future communication and virtual reality. In addition, the pilot project of "Chief Scientist Responsibility System" will be carried out in the major project of Science and Technology Innovation 2030- "New Generation Artificial Intelligence".

Vigorously support young scientists

As the main body of scientific and technological activities, young scientists are paid more and more attention in the national key R&D plan.

It is clear in the guide that in order to create more opportunities for young researchers to organize and implement major national goal-oriented R&D tasks, key R&D plans will set up young scientists’ projects on a larger scale. According to the characteristics of the field and special projects, various ways are adopted, such as setting up a young scientist project or setting up a young scientist topic under the project. There is no subject under the Young Scientists Program, and in principle, no budget evaluation will be organized. Young scientists are encouraged to boldly explore more innovative and subversive new methods and paths to better serve the realization of the overall goal of the special project.

The reporter consulted the guide and found that 80% of the eight key projects have young scientists’ projects. Regarding the age limit, it is clear that "men should be born after January 1, 1986 and women should be born after January 1, 1983. In principle, the age requirements for other team participants are the same as above".

Lei Zhu, an associate professor at Shanghai Jiaotong University, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that the young scientist project has existed for a long time. "In 2016, we got the first batch of key special youth projects, and it was still a pilot."

In Lei Zhu’s view, the young scientist project is very important to young people, because generally large projects can only be done with strong team support; For a small young scientist project like this, it is not mandatory to set up a topic, just find some participating units to cooperate to complete this matter. In addition, the acceptance of the final engineering or indexing will not be limited to be rigid, and everyone is encouraged to have technological innovation or principle innovation.

"And this time there is a clear age limit, so young researchers are very encouraged to start undertaking large-scale scientific research tasks independently. This is a milestone encouragement." Lei Zhu said.

According to the data of the Ministry of Science and Technology, from 2016 to 2020, there were 235 projects supporting young scientists, involving 874 million yuan of state funding and an average support intensity of 3.72 million yuan. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the national key research and development plan set up young scientists’ projects in eight key projects, including nanotechnology, synthetic biology and digital diagnosis and treatment equipment research and development in the basic field and social development field.

At the press conference of the State Council Office in February, Xie Xin said that the national science and technology plan will fully implement the young scientist project during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.

He said that young people are already the main force in the implementation of our current science and technology plan, but we should build a higher and bigger platform for them in the 14 th Five-Year Plan, let outstanding young researchers take the lead, let them independently undertake tasks, take the lead in organizing national projects, and make bold innovations in the process of implementing projects. At the same time, we will cultivate a group of young reserve troops who can lead the way in the future for the development of science and technology in our country. All these reform measures will be implemented in the deployment of the first batch of projects in the 14 th Five-Year Plan this year.

What is the quotation for all Honda models?

As a well-known automobile brand, Honda has a variety of models and a wide price range. The following is the official guide price information of some Honda models:

Dongfeng Honda:

CRVThe official guide price starts from 185,900 yuan.;

HRVThe official guide price starts from 159,900 yuan.;

XRVThe official guide price starts from 119,900 yuan.;

URVThe official guide price starts from 246,800 yuan.;

CIVICThe official guide price starts from 129,900 yuan.;

AilishenThe official guide price starts from 279,800 yuan.;

LIFEThe official guide price starts at 97,800 yuan.;

YingshipaiThe official guide price starts from 182,800 yuan.;

Enjoy the domainThe official guide price starts from 109,800 yuan..

Guangqi Honda:

FitThe official guide price starts at 86,800 yuan.;

AccordThe official guide price starts at 179,800 yuan.;

Crown RoadThe official guide price starts from 239,800 yuan.;

LingpaiThe official guide price starts from 119,800 yuan.;

XinggeThe official guide price starts from 129,900 yuan.;

Bin ChiThe official guide price starts from 119,900 yuan.;

HaoyingThe official guide price starts from 185,900 yuan.;

OdysseyThe official guide price starts from 235,800 yuan..

CRV

It should be noted that the above prices are for reference only, and the actual prices may be different due to factors such as regions, distributors and configurations. It is suggested that you contact your local dealer directly or visit Honda’s official website to get more accurate quotations and detailed information.

The new ceasefire agreement between the two sides of the conflict in Sudan came into effect, and the situation in the capital circle was generally calm.

  On June 10, local time, the 24-hour temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force came into effect. In the metropolitan area, which is composed of the capital city of Khartoum and its surrounding cities of North Khartoum and Omdurman, except for sporadic firefights and air strikes in some areas that morning, the situation was generally calm, social life was restored, and some buses began to run. Some residents took to the streets to buy daily necessities, while others left the capital circle for more stable areas. However, two bridges connecting North Khartoum and Omdurman and crossing the Nile were closed by militants, which caused a lot of inconvenience to local people.

  Saudi Arabia and the United States, which are responsible for mediating the conflict in Sudan and supervising the ceasefire, issued a statement on the 9th, announcing that the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force reached a new 24-hour temporary ceasefire agreement in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The agreement is scheduled to take effect at 6 o’clock on the 10th Khartoum time. (Reporter Zhao Yuanfang, General Desk)

[See you at 8: 00] In 2020, the first day of Spring Festival travel rush train tickets will be sold, and new tickets will be sold at every hour and half hour.

  At 8 o’clock every day, CCTV will sort out the big and small things that happened around us within 24 hours.

  [Focus]

  The Ministry of Finance promulgated the Measures for the Administration of Government Procurement Information Release, which will take effect on March 1, 2020.

  State Taxation Administration of The People’s Republic of China: The additional deduction information of individual tax has not been updated or affected the credit.

  Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Help small and medium-sized pig farmers to speed up the resumption of production by means of "company+farmers".

  Development and Reform Commission: It is estimated that all 250 provincial toll stations will be removed by the end of the year.

  The Supreme People’s Procuratorate deployed a pilot project to inform the obligee of litigation rights and obligations in criminal cases of infringement of intellectual property rights.

  The Supreme People’s Court issued the Provisions of the Supreme People’s Court on Several Issues Concerning the Trial of Administrative Agreement Cases.

  On the 11th, the press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council gave a detailed explanation of the "26 measures" to provide equal treatment for Taiwanese enterprises.

  Encourage "whistleblowers" and the market supervision department will implement the reward system for reporting.

  The Ministry of Education issued a document requiring all local schools to strictly regulate the qualification examination, examination registration and examination management of special types of enrollment.

  The Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued new regulations to improve the withdrawal mechanism of national intangible heritage inheritors.

  China’s Mars flight control team made its debut. The National Space Administration recently announced that China’s first Mars exploration mission is scheduled to be implemented in 2020.

  Beijing-Zhangjia high-speed railway and Zhanghu high-speed railway completed the first full-line driving test according to the map. According to the plan, two high-speed rail lines will be put into operation simultaneously at the end of this year.

  [Expo]

  On the 10th, the United Nations Climate Change Conference began a high-level meeting, and representatives of various countries continued intensive consultations on some unresolved issues.

  Due to the obstruction of the United States, the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization, which has the power of final judgment on international trade disputes, was forced to temporarily suspend its operation on the 11th.

  The Judiciary Committee of the US House of Representatives announced two impeachment clauses against President Trump, accusing him of abusing his power and obstructing the congressional investigation.

  On the 11th local time, a suicide bombing occurred near the base of the US military in Bagram, Afghanistan, killing one person and injuring more than 60 people.

  Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia will take measures to respond to Germany’s expulsion of Russian embassy staff.

  On the 10th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited Washington, where he met with US President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo respectively to discuss bilateral relations, arms control, Ukrainian issues and Syrian issues.

  A new round of demonstrations in response to the general strike broke out in France, with 340,000 people participating.

  On the 10th, Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez was sworn in in Buenos Aires. The New Deal focused on three major tasks: people’s livelihood, foreign exchange and negotiation.

  Deputy Director of Rural Fire Service Department of Australia and New Zealand: The number of houses burned during the forest fire season continues to increase, and now it has been confirmed that 724 houses have been destroyed, with a burning area of 2.7 million hectares.

  [hundred States]

  Chinese scholars have developed a new type of concrete that can be "self-cleaning".

  Guangdong reported a case of Zika virus imported from abroad.

  Progress in the investigation of the "12.3" sewage tank collapse accident, nine people died as a result of the instantaneous dumping of sewage.

  Beijing plans to cancel the starting price of high-speed fees and realize accurate billing.

  In 2020, the first train ticket in Spring Festival travel rush will be on sale on the 12th, and new tickets will be on sale at every hour and half hour for 12306 online ticket purchase and telephone ticket purchase.

  Shanghai Airport responded to the ambulance pick-up: 9 responsible persons were given disciplinary and political treatment.

  Peking University informed Feng Renjie, a teacher, of his decision to revoke the qualification of the teacher and dismiss him.

  The case of smuggling pangolin scales was solved, and nearly 50 thousand pangolins were killed.

  UAV research has become a "new blue ocean" for training, and drone flying hand training for teenagers aged 6-14 has quietly emerged.

  After a girl jumped into the river in Hangzhou for 90 years, the young man went into the water to rescue her, and both of them were killed.

  "Tumbler Girl" became popular and sold base businesses with fire. It sold one piece a month before, and now it sells hundreds of pieces a month.

  Visual sense

  Vlog shares personal life and spreads news with fire. In Xuanweifu, Dafang County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province, the old man Huang Youxian is taking a video with his smartphone to share the beautiful scenery along the way.

  Aerial photography of the forest in Dayuya Mountain, Jiangxi Province, is colorful and picturesque.

  [sound]

  "We have always adhered to the people-centered development thinking, complied with the common desire of compatriots on both sides of the strait to strengthen exchanges and cooperation and the actual needs of Taiwan Province compatriots looking forward to more development opportunities, and continuously introduced a series of policy initiatives such as" 31 measures "and" 26 measures "to benefit Taiwan and benefit the people, providing more equal treatment for Taiwan Province compatriots to share development opportunities in the mainland, which was widely welcomed and affirmed by Taiwan Province compatriots."

  — — Zhu Fenglian, Spokesperson of Taiwan Affairs Office

  [face]

  At 3: 20 pm on December 9, an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 occurred in Anzhou District, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. Beichuan County, which is more than 30 kilometers away from Anzhou District, felt a strong earthquake. At the moment of the earthquake, people’s instinct is to escape, while Xiong Wenyan, a female teacher in Yongchang Kindergarten in Beichuan County, ran retrograde to the teaching building.

  See you at 8 o’clock tomorrow!

  Editor: Dong Shuyun and Luo Meng

Special feature: Why the loss of a mountain fire hit a hundred-year record —— Reflection on the mountain fire disaster in California, USA

  Xinhua News Agency, Los Angeles, December 16th, special feature: Why did the loss of a mountain fire hit a hundred-year record — — Reflection on Mountain Fire Disaster in California, USA

  Xinhua News Agency reporter Huang Heng Gaoshan

  On the real-time fire map of California Forest Fire Bureau, many mountain fires are still burning. Compared with the basically controlled mountain fire "Kemp", these mountain fires are small in scale, but they still make Californians nervous.

  Recently, mountain fires "Kemp", "woolsey" and "Hill" have ravaged the north and south of California at the same time, causing at least 89 deaths and burning more than 20,000 buildings. The "Kemp" mountain fire has become the most deadly and destructive mountain fire disaster in the United States in the past 100 years because it claimed more than 80 innocent lives.

  Although California mountain fires are related to natural factors, they also expose some problems such as outdated infrastructure, improper planning and insufficient budget in some parts of the United States, which causes American society to reflect.

  Climate change policy is questioned.

  On December 7, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced a new policy, which greatly loosened the restrictions on carbon emissions of new coal-fired power plants. This is the latest action of the Clean Power Plan issued by the current US government during its subversion of the Obama administration. In the eyes of many scientists, similar carbon emission loosening policies will aggravate global warming, thus leading to more "Kemp"-style deadly mountain fires.

  According to the statistics of the National Inter-departmental Fire Center of the United States, four of the five largest mountain fires in California history occurred after 2012 in terms of fire area. The "Thomas Mountain Fire", which just set a fire area record at the beginning of this year, was surpassed by the "Mendocino Joint Mountain Fire" with a fire area of more than 1,148 square kilometers seven months later.

  Neil Laru, an atmospheric researcher at the University of Nevada, Reno, believes that the frequent severe mountain fires are behind the trend of climate warming. "When the atmosphere warms, it also becomes hungrier." Strong winds accelerate the spread of fire, and at the same time, "thirsty" air will absorb water from plants, making vegetation more flammable. "Heat, drought and strong winds are all raw materials for mountain fires. It’s all collected this time. "

  In the view of California Governor Jerry Brown, "Fire Devil" is rampant because of human factors. He emphasized to the media and the public that global warming and the increase in extreme weather are the fundamental reasons for the destructive power of California mountain fires. Humans need to "stand with nature" to stop the trend of global warming.

  This is an important part of the White House’s policy philosophy. The current U.S. government not only withdrew from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, but also abolished a series of energy reform measures formulated during the Obama era by administrative order, and even planned to force the reduction of automobile exhaust and carbon emission standards of coal-fired power plants.

  Coincidentally. When reflecting on the severe flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston last year, many scientists also expounded the relationship between climate change and frequent hurricanes. Jim Black, a professor of environmental engineering at Rice University in Texas, told reporters that in the United States, climate change has almost become a taboo topic, and he does not agree with this practice. He believes that facing up to climate change will help to deal with disastrous weather conditions to a certain extent.

  "These measures [to loosen carbon emission restrictions] mean that when people face heat waves, droughts, fires and floods, the government will ignore them. These disasters will become more terrible because of climate change. " Ken Chimel, president of the American Union of Concerned Scientists, told reporters.

  Infrastructure aging buried hidden dangers.

  In addition to the "bad weather", California suffered heavy fire losses in the past two years, which also reflected two major livelihood issues that have plagued the United States for many years, namely, the housing crisis and the aging of infrastructure. Failure to nip in the bud is closely related to these disadvantages of people’s livelihood.

  In California, for example, the housing needs of a large number of low-income people have been unable to meet for a long time, and their homes have been forced to gradually expand from the edge of the city to the adjacent wild forest areas, some of which are even the originally planned urban fire belts. In order to ensure the real estate tax that supports local finance, some municipal authorities have relaxed supervision on developers. As a result, a large number of buildings were illegally built in the forest. Once a mountain fire happens, it is easy to cause huge personal and property losses.

  Richard halsey, an expert on mountain fires, wrote in the Los Angeles Times that the social reasons behind mountain fires must be acknowledged, including "poor planning". "They allow developers to leave hidden dangers during development, but let firefighters take the blame."

  The aging of power, communication, emergency and other infrastructure has seriously affected the life-saving and escape measures such as fire warning, notification and evacuation. The communication signal in the mountainous area of California is extremely poor. In Paradise Town, the hardest hit area of the mountain fire "Kemp", many victims who escaped from the fire confirmed to reporters that about one-third of the 27,000 residents in the town did not receive the mandatory evacuation order issued by the police through mobile phones, networks and other channels when the mountain fire occurred.

  According to an after-the-fact investigation by the California Public Facilities Committee, the first batch of firefighters who rushed to Paradise Town arrived at the scene 10 minutes after the fire broke out, at about 6: 45 am on November 8. Due to the shortage of local base stations and communication difficulties, although the county sheriff’s office quickly issued an evacuation order, it was past 8 o’clock when the first batch of residents learned the order, and by 10: 15, the mobile communication signal in Paradise Town was completely interrupted.

  Savannah Lauscher, a resident of Paradise Town, recalled that when she received the alarm at about 8: 30, the ashes had drifted outside her house. "We saw a wall of fire. The Woods 50 yards (about 45 meters) away are burning and moving forward at a speed of almost 10 yards (about 9 meters) per minute. " Their family escaped by car like most people, but the road was so congested that they had to drive into the opposite lane to find a way out. Many people abandoned their cars and fled, while many people who stayed in the cars were burned to death.

  Old power facilities are also a great hidden danger. According to the investigation report of the California Forest Fire Bureau on the cause of the fire in 2017, of the 21 large-scale fires in that year, 17 were caused by the equipment failure of Pacific Gas and Power Company. According to reports, the cause of the "Kemp" mountain fire may also be related to this.

  Insufficient special budget attracts criticism.

  The frequent occurrence of catastrophic mountain fires highlights the shortage of funds related to disaster prevention and relief in the United States. When the fiscal deficit and debt are rising, the U.S. government insists on using more government budgets in the military field, and does not hesitate to squeeze the budgets of federal agencies related to people’s livelihood. In addition, short-sighted economic and fiscal policies have magnified the shortcomings of insufficient and unbalanced disaster prevention and relief resources in the United States at this stage.

  In FY 2018, the department responsible for forest fire prevention at the federal level — — The overall fire budget of the US Forestry Administration decreased by 17%, of which the budget for fire fighting was 1.06 billion US dollars, and in fiscal year 2017, the bureau spent more than 2.5 billion US dollars on fighting mountain fires. Overexpenditure on fire fighting has resulted in less and less expenses on fire prevention and related scientific research.

  Us president trump accused California of failing to clean up dead trees and weeds in the forest in time after the "Kemp" mountain fire. The budget table of the US Forestry Administration shows that this year’s federal budget will directly reduce the budget for "cleaning up dangerous combustibles" from more than $37 million to zero. The inter-departmental "Joint Fire Science Research Project" has funded 280 sub-projects in the past 10 years, which has played a great role in guiding the disaster reduction and prevention of mountain fires. However, the funding for this research project in 2018 is less than a quarter of that in 2011.

  Due to historical reasons, a large area of land in the western United States belongs to the federal government. Take the forests of California as an example, 40% are owned by federal agencies, 30% are privately owned, and 30% are owned by the California government. The federal government has invested less in the prevention, control and scientific research of mountain fires, so the state government has to use local financial funds to advance. In 2016, California paid $16 million in firefighting funds for the federal government. Until 2017, the money was not returned, which led California to threaten to stand by and watch the fires in the federal government’s jurisdiction.

  The California mountain fire also exposed the imbalance in the allocation of disaster relief forces of local governments in the United States. An official of the Los Angeles Fire Department told the reporter that "Kemp" caused heavy casualties in northern California, while the other two fires near Los Angeles caused relatively light losses. The most direct reason was that the local government in southern California had more money, so it could hire more firefighters, professional firefighting planes and other large equipment. The worst-hit paradise town, which is located in Buyut County, is one of the poorest places in California.

  The casualties and losses caused by a fire are heartbreaking. The inability of the federal and local governments to cope with the disaster has exposed the shortcomings of American social governance. These deep-seated contradictions and problems should arouse the reflection of the American government and society, otherwise, the future fire and water disasters will only be more ruthless. (Participating in reporters: Wu Xiaoling, Changyuan, Gaolu, Liu Liwei)

Shocking people! These 10 moments of the opening ceremony of Chengdu Universiade are so romantic and beautiful!

The opening ceremony of the 31st Summer Universiade was held in Chengdu at 8 o’clock tonight.

Which scene poked you in the hot search of the opening ceremony of Chengdu Universiade?

Each of the 10 moments of the opening ceremony was amazing and worth brushing again!

/Instant 1/

Water splashing golden fireworks

The whole venue was lit by the welcome fireworks of Chengdu Universiade.

Gorgeous golden fireworks are like splashing water, beautiful, cool and eye-catching!

Fireworks show the words "WELCOME" and "welcome" in the air to welcome friends all over the world!

Beautiful high-definition big picture

Every picture is breathtaking.

/Instant 2/

Social cattle version of bouncing Rong Bao

Have to say

The national treasure content of this opening ceremony is too high! 34 pandas are so good at jumping!

The netizen caught the bright spot at a glance: Rong Bao can jump so well

True social cattle stand out!

The giant panda is not only the national treasure of China.

It is also the darling of the people of the world.

The giant panda that has lived on the earth for 8 million years.

It is the flagship species of biodiversity conservation in the world.

Sichuan is the main habitat of giant pandas.

It is also to protect giant pandas and maintain biodiversity.

And ecological integrity.

Nowadays, the threat level of giant pandas is graded.

From "endangered" to "vulnerable"

The "demotion" of giant pandas

It confirms the upgrading of the living environment of wild species in China.

/Instant 3/

12 seconds countdown

The tail feather of the Sun God Bird flashes and emits 12 golden rays, counting down to 12, and the opening ceremony of Chengdu Universiade officially begins!

The countdown to the opening ceremony is based on the theme of "praising the sunshine"

It consists of three parts: short film, scene image and fireworks.

Chinese cultural heritage symbol "Sun God Bird"

Flying through time and space, the tail wing rotates

Emit 12 golden rays.

The countdown begins with the number "12"

/Instant 4/

Daliangshan girl sings the opening ceremony

"The national flag is beautiful. Venus shines on the earth.

I would like to become a little red cloud and fly into the blue sky to kiss you … … "

Six Yi children from Daliangshan

Chorus "The national flag is so beautiful" in the center of the stage.

Pure singing seems to be able to cross mountains and seas.

Move the audience

Young people from 56 ethnic groups sang "Singing the Motherland"

In the song, the five-star red flag enters! The most beautiful China red!

/Instant 5/ Raise the national flag and play the national anthem.

National Flag of the People’s Republic of China, National Anthem of the People’s Republic of China! Full chorus!

/Instant 6/ Colorful Shu brocade incarnates gorgeous avenue

College athletes from 113 countries and regions in the world walked into the scene and woven colorful Sichuan brocade on the ancient loom. This Sichuan brocade turned into a colorful avenue and walked on the splendid road woven by Sichuan brocade. College athletes from all over the world entered the stadium! Welcome everyone!

The China delegation made its debut, and the familiar jasmine sounded and the applause thundered!The whole audience is boiling: shout "Xiongqi"!

/Instant 7/ Pepper

Sharp-eyed friends have found out! The guide clothing is inspired by Sichuan pepper and designed with Sichuan brocade as the core element, which is worthy of being in Chengdu!

/Instant 8/ Romance through three thousand years

The wonderful 15-minute art performance brings a dialogue between ancient and modern times that has passed through 3,000 years to the whole world.

Jinsha Shiqing and Sanxingdui Mask The bronze portraits and masks worn by the dancers in the group dance all come from Sanxingdui site.

One thousand years at a time, stunning the world!

/Instant 9/ Sichuan Opera changed its face and turned into a flower.

Absolutely! The Sichuan Opera changed its face by 12 faces, and finally a flower came out! The end of Sichuan Opera’s face-changing is the giant panda!

Young college students are full of energy, performing classical and elegant Sichuan Opera, showing that the ancient and the modern complement each other. This Chinese romance, I love it!

/Instant 10/ Attention! The main torch tower is lit.

The most anticipated ignition link.

Finally!

The main torchbearer is Ye Guangfu.

He is a crew astronaut of Shenzhou 13 manned mission.

Torch hands

There are representatives from the sports world:

Yang Qian, the shooting champion of Tokyo Olympic Games

Rio Olympic table tennis champion Ding Ning

Some were admitted to Peking University this year.

Wenchuan Earthquake "Salute Doll" Lang Zheng

There are also national model workers and representatives of overseas students in Chengdu.

Young people from all over the world gather in Chengdu, which is a grand meeting of friendship!

These youthful faces will leave the brightest smiles in Chengdu!

Forward this historic moment

Chengdu makes dreams come true!

Sanya’s tourist attractions resumed opening in an orderly manner.

  Cctv newsOn September 21st, Sanya Tourism, Culture, Radio, Film and Sports Bureau issued the Notice.

  I. Resume the opening of business scope

  All tourist attractions in the city (the indoor closed business premises in the scenic spots are temporarily closed).

  Second, the resumption of production time and procedures

  From now on, all tourist attractions in the city will apply to the Tourism Bureau of their jurisdiction for opening the park for filing after implementing various epidemic prevention and control measures in the park in strict accordance with the Plan. In accordance with the requirements of "filing one, checking one, passing one and opening one", the Tourism Bureau of each district conducts on-the-spot inspection on the scenic spots that have applied for opening the park, and resumes opening business for those that meet the requirements for opening the park; The tourist attractions that fail to meet the relevant requirements can be opened for business only after they have passed the rectification; If no application for resumption of business is made, it is strictly forbidden to open business privately.

  Three, strictly implement the epidemic prevention and control and safety requirements.

  All tourist attractions in the city should formulate work plans and plans for epidemic prevention and control and safety production in light of the actual situation, improve emergency measures, reserve epidemic prevention materials, overhaul facilities and equipment, and implement safety and fire control responsibilities. Standardize the posting of the location code of the park, fully implement the prevention and control measures such as 50% flow restriction, appointment, peak shifting, temperature measurement, employee monitoring ("daily inspection"), code scanning inspection, wearing masks, and one meter line, and do a good job in ventilation and environmental disinfection. At the same time, the announcement information of the resumption of business in the scenic spot was released.

  Fourth, the admission notice

  Visitors should pay attention to the announcement of the resumption of business in the scenic spot in advance. When entering the park, they must make an appointment with their real names in advance, wear masks regularly throughout the whole process, cooperate with temperature measurement, sweep the floor or fill in a form to register, and produce a green health code and a 48-hour negative nucleic acid certificate. Those who refuse to cooperate are not allowed to enter the park.

One place plans to issue bonds of 66.32 billion yuan, all of which will be used to repay the debts owed to enterprises.

  On September 26th, the information of the refinancing general bonds (9-11) of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government was disclosed, and the total amount of the three bonds to be issued was 66.32 billion yuan.

  It is worth mentioning that of the three bonds issued this time, the use of the funds raised in the ninth phase is clearly defined as "all the debts owed by the government for repayment", and the use of the tenth and eleventh bonds is clearly defined as "all the debts owed by the government for repayment before 2018".

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  Inner Mongolia issued 66.32 billion bonds.

  Used to repay debts owed to enterprises.

  On September 26,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government refinancing general bondsDisclosure of information related to the ninth to eleventh issues. According to the disclosure documents, the total amount of the three bonds to be issued is 66.32 billion yuan. Specifically, the issuance amounts are 27.44 billion yuan, 19.44 billion yuan and 19.44 billion yuan respectively, and the bond maturities are 3 years, 7 years and 5 years respectively.

  The interest on the bonds shall be paid annually, and the interest shall be paid on October 10th every year (postponed on holidays). The principal of the bonds shall be repaid in one lump sum and the last interest shall be paid. After issuance, it can be circulated in the national inter-bank bond market and the stock exchange bond market according to regulations.

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  According to the information disclosure documents, this round of refinancing general bonds were issued through bidding. On the tender day, the bidding work is organized through the "Government Bond Issuance System of the Ministry of Finance", and the members of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government Bond Underwriting Group from 2021 to 2023 are eligible to participate in the first issuance bidding.

  It is worth mentioning that the three issues of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government refinancing general bonds issued this time,Among them, the purpose of the ninth bond is clearly defined as "all the funds raised will repay the debts owed by the government to the enterprise",The purpose of the tenth and eleventh issues of bonds is clearly defined as "all the raised funds will repay the outstanding corporate accounts recognized by the government before 2018"..

  In this regard, Feng Lin, a senior analyst of Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, said in an interview with national business daily that there may be two meanings here: First, it is the concrete implementation of the Special Action Plan for Clearing Outstanding Enterprise Accounts adopted by the the State Council executive meeting on September 20th. Second, this means that the hidden debts of local governments include not only the financial debts of the city investment platform, but also the accounts owed to enterprises.

  According to the debt situation of the whole region disclosed by the Finance Department of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the government debt balance of the whole region in 2022 was 933.97 billion yuan. From the source of funds, 932.88 billion yuan of government bonds were issued, accounting for 99.88%; BT, arrears of project funds and other payables are 149 million yuan, accounting for 0.02%; Other debts such as loans from international economic organizations and foreign governments amounted to 951 million yuan, accounting for 0.10%. Judging from the future repayment, it will be 125.27 billion yuan in 2023 and 808.7 billion yuan in 2024 and beyond.

  In addition, the Finance Department of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region disclosed that in terms of local economic conditions, the regional GDP of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2022 was 1,449.15 billion yuan. In terms of fiscal revenue and expenditure, 1-mdash in 2022; In December, the general public budget revenue of the whole region was 282.44 billion yuan, an increase of 47.44 billion yuan or 20.2% over the previous year. The general public budget expenditure in the region was 588.77 billion yuan, an increase of 64.814 billion yuan or 12.4% over the previous year. The revenue of government funds in the whole region was 40.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.72 billion yuan or 19.3% over the previous year. The expenditure of government funds in the whole region was 67.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.12 billion yuan or 9.5% over the previous year.

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  Conducive to reducing the hidden debt stock.

  Is the refinancing bond issued by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government a special refinancing bond? What is the difference between special refinancing bonds and refinancing bonds?

  Nie Zhuo, a lecturer in the Finance and Taxation Department of university of international business and economics Institute of International Economics and Trade, said that ordinary refinancing bonds and special refinancing bonds are local government bonds that the budget law stipulates that local governments can legally issue within the debt limit approved by the National People’s Congress. The difference between them lies mainly in their different purposes. Ordinary refinancing bonds are used to repay the principal of local government bonds due, andSpecial refinancing bonds are used to repay other debts besides the explicit debts of local governments, including the implicit debts of existing stocks.. Therefore, the refinancing bonds issued by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government this time belong to special refinancing bonds.

  Feng Lin also mentioned that special refinancing bonds are refinancing bonds issued by local governments. Different from ordinary refinancing bonds, the funds raised by special refinancing bonds are used to repay the principal of government bonds due, and the funds raised by special refinancing bonds are used to replace local implicit debts.That is, to make hidden debts explicit..

  "The issuance of ordinary refinancing bonds will not lead to an increase in the balance of explicit debts of local governments, because only the expired explicit debts will be replaced by newly issued refinancing bonds; The issuance of special refinancing bonds will reduce the implicit debt stock and increase the explicit debt balance. " When talking about the difference between the two, Nie Zhuo said.

  Feng Lin further pointed out that from the past practice, the explicit hidden debt is a debt-dissolving method with less resistance and obvious short-term results. Therefore, after Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party proposed to "formulate and implement a package debt-dissolving scheme" on July 24th, the market generally expected that the special refinancing debt used to replace hidden debt would be re-issued and would become an important measure in the package debt-dissolving scheme.

  Nie Zhuo said that the issuance of special refinancing bonds has two meanings for resolving local debts. First, special refinancing bonds transform high-interest and opaque implicit debt into low-interest and transparent regulatory debt, which directly reduces the debt risk of local governments. Second, the issuance of special refinancing bonds uses the local government debt limit approved by the National People’s Congress in the past but not used by local governments, which will not break through the current local government debt limit management principle, so the implementation cost is small.

  When talking about the historical issuance scale of refinancing bonds, Nie Zhuo said that refinancing bonds were first issued in December 2020 when the pilot project to resolve the hidden debt risk of the county was fully launched, and all of them were issued in September 2021, with a total amount of 612.8 billion yuan. Subsequently, a total of 504.18 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. According to previous market rumors, the planned issuance amount of this round of special refinancing bonds is 1.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the sum of the previous two rounds.

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  What are the main sources of local debt risks?

  Nie Zhuo pointed out that in the short term, the local government debt risk is mainly manifested as liquidity risk, especially the liquidity risk of the stock implicit debt, including a considerable part of financing platform debt, which is due to be paid.The principal repayment risk of local government’s explicit debt is not serious, but the continuous rise of interest burden is worthy of attention.. At present, the liquidity risk of local government debt is very prominent, which is also related to the substantial increase of local government expenditure responsibility during the epidemic, the financial shortage caused by the economic recovery situation after the epidemic, and the real estate risk has not been completely resolved.

  "In the long run, the essence of local debt risk is that the transformation of China’s economic development model has not yet been completed, and economic growth still depends on government investment to a considerable extent, and the efficiency of government investment has gradually declined with the completion of a large number of infrastructure construction in the past." Nie Zhuo said that whether the future debt risk can really be continuously resolved depends on whether it can continue to deepen major economic reforms such as market-oriented reform and income distribution reform while improving the local government debt management system, and finally complete the transformation of the economic development model.

  It is worth noting that the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on July 24th pointed out that "it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks and formulate and implement a debt package". Then, what plans can local governments take to prevent and resolve local debt risks?

  Nie Zhuo said that in the short term, the core of debt conversion is to avoid liquidity risks of local governments. Relevant debt-dissolving measures include negotiating with financial institutions to obtain liquidity support, issuing special refinancing bonds, and disposing of state-owned assets to obtain income to pay off debts. In the medium term, while promoting the further improvement of the economic situation to increase the financial revenue sources of local governments, we can consider restructuring some hidden debts. In the long run, on the one hand, it is necessary to further improve the local government debt management mechanism and establish a clear relationship between the central and local governments to avoid the increase of debt scale; On the other hand, it is also necessary to promote the reform of income distribution and marketization to reduce the dependence of economic growth on government investment.

  Song Xuetao, chief macro analyst of TF Securities, said in an interview with national business daily that since the meeting of the Political Bureau on July 24th, although local governments have actively promoted the debt-converting work, not many have publicly disclosed the debt-converting plan.

  Song Xuetao further pointed out that Hunan Province may mainly rely on financial resources to support debt. On August 29th, the executive meeting of Hunan Provincial Government approved in principle the Work Plan for Preventing and Resolving Local Debt Risks in Hunan Province (Draft for Review), but the plan has not been made public at present. However, from the Report on Draft Final Accounts of Hunan Province in 2022 and Budget Implementation in the First Half of 2023, it is mentioned that "encourage and guide financial institutions such as banks ‘ Take his plate instead ’ , continue to cut interest rates, promote the hidden debt chain, optimize the structure, and reduce costs. From the point of view, the interest rate reduction for the extension of the existing hidden debt may be the key debt-turning scheme in Hunan Province this round.

  Xiangtan City, Hunan Province, in the "Report on the Final Accounts of Xiangtan City at the corresponding level in 2022 (Draft)" also proposed "passing ‘ Silver meets non-silver ’ ‘ Bank encirclement ’ , structural deleveraging, optimizing asset allocation and other measures, and strive to achieve ‘ Medium and long-term bank funds accounted for 90% of the debt, and the interest rate dropped to 4%’ The goal of accelerating the realization of ‘ Interest even ’ The plan to promote the early turning point in the tough battle of debt conversion is also mainly based on the route of financial support for debt conversion. Song Xuetao said: "Considering that the explicit debt space of local governments is limited, it is more difficult to replace a large number of implicit debts with explicit debts in 2015. It is expected that financial resources such as interest rate cuts will play a greater role in this round of debt-converting."

  Nanning, Guangxi, emphasizes the market-oriented transformation of state-owned enterprises and the revitalization of existing assets to help turn debt into debt. The Work Points of Nanning Finance Bureau in 2023 clearly pointed out that "support the market-oriented transformation of state-owned enterprises and promote the debt resolution of municipal state-owned platform companies. Increase the vitality of the city-level and county (city, district) stock assets, and actively revitalize various assets such as national reserve forests, water conservancy projects, property transfer houses and state-owned agricultural land. "

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  Which related industries will benefit?

  Song Xuetao said that debt conversion through special refinancing bonds is essentially the same as the replacement bonds launched in 2015, which are all implicit debts. By 2022, the explicit debt ratio of local governments has reached 125%, exceeding the warning line of 100% set by the Ministry of Finance in 2015, and there is not much room for local governments to undertake hidden debts. Therefore, the special refinancing bonds will mainly play an "emergency" role in this round of debt conversion, and it is not expected to "sprinkle pepper noodles".

  Nie Zhuo also said that special refinancing bonds are conducive to helping areas with high hidden debt risks to reduce the pressure of principal and interest payment.

  Feng Lin pointed out that the previous market rumors that the issuance amount of this round of special refinancing bonds will be around 1.5 trillion yuan, and the focus will be on 12 high-risk provinces and cities, but Inner Mongolia, which took the lead in issuing special refinancing bonds, is not among these 12 provinces. This means that the provinces involved in this round of special refinancing bonds may be more widely rumored than before.It is expected that the areas with high risk of subsequent debt will also follow up the issuance quickly, and the current issuance quota may also exceed 1.5 trillion yuan.— — Comparing the local government debt balance and debt limit, the upper limit of the scale of issuing special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts during the year is about 2.6 trillion yuan, of which the general debt limit space is about 1.4 trillion yuan and the special debt limit space is about 1.1 trillion yuan, and the general debt limit can be used more. The special refinancing bonds issued in Inner Mongolia this time are all general debts.

  Which industries may be greatly affected by the new round of local debt risk resolution? What investment opportunities may appear in the second half of the year?

  In this regard, Song Xuetao explained that since this round of debt conversion should "prevent debt from being added at the same time", and the creditor should mainly resolve the risk of debt exposure, not eliminate the debt, and the corresponding debt still needs to be repaid by the local government after debt conversion, so the main function of this round of debt conversion will be to slow down the risk, rather than let the local government re-leverage on a large scale. However, in the process of debt conversion, local governments and local urban investment platforms may speed up the repayment of debts owed by enterprises. Therefore, industries that have had more business dealings with local governments in the past and held more accounts receivable from local governments or local urban investment platforms will benefit from this round of debt, such as construction, agriculture, forestry, environmental protection, water affairs, electricity and other industries related to infrastructure or public utilities.

  Feng Lin said that the issuance of special refinancing bonds in Inner Mongolia means that the market will realize the expected resumption of the issuance of special refinancing bonds, which will slow down the liquidity risk in areas with high debt risk, and may also release the signal that the debt package plan will gradually enter the implementation stage. This is mainly beneficial to the short-term solvency of urban investment enterprises, and its impact on the bond market is also mainly reflected in urban investment bonds. The reason is that the city investment company, as the investment and financing platform of local governments for a long time, is the main debtor of local hidden debts.

  Feng Lin further pointed out that it can be seen that since Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party put forward a package of debt-conversion schemes, the market’s worries about the default of urban investment bonds have been alleviated. Since August, urban investment bonds have been sought after by investors, with the subscription multiple rising sharply, the yield rate dropping significantly, and the spread greatly reduced. In particular, short-term urban investment bonds in areas with high debt risks and regional spreads have been favored by the market, and the spread narrowed most obviously. "We judge that with the gradual implementation of the debt package represented by the re-issuance of special refinancing bonds, the regions and related entities that benefit from policy support will be focused on by the market, and the enthusiasm for the subscription of urban investment bonds is still expected to continue."

  Reporter |Songo   Intern reporter |Zhang hong

  Edit |Sun Zhicheng Liao Dan Du Hengfeng

  Proofread |Wang Yuelong

Many European countries were hit by tornadoes, and the roofs of Luxembourg houses were blown off.

  CCTV News:On the 9th local time, some European countries were hit by a tornado. In the afternoon, the southern city of Luxembourg, Petangri, was hit by a tornado. According to the video taken by witnesses, the sky was dark and gloomy when the tornado hit, and the roofs of many houses were swept into the air under the rotation and agitation of huge wind. According to the local emergency department, the houses in several blocks in the city center were the most seriously damaged, and many cars were also damaged to varying degrees. According to preliminary estimates, the local economic losses caused by the tornado amounted to millions of euros.